It is that most wonderful time of the year again. The time of the year when my thoughts turn towards geo-political alliances, sequins, unfortunate dance moves, and mangled English. Yes, it is Eurovision time! I have already aired a few opinions on the ESCInsight Juke Box Jury podcasts but nothing beats a proper blog run-down. So, fasten your seat belts, turn up the volume and grab some popcorn (maybe not in that order). The Eurovision Contest 2012 will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan. Six countries have pre-qualified for the finale (Germany, Italy, Spain, France, the UK and Azerbaijan) and thirty-six countries will be battling it out in two semi-finales. Juries will vote. TV viewers will vote. That is all you need to know, really, although it is entirely possible to speculate on the basis on where in the draw in which semi-finale countries are placed.. but let's not go there. Instead there are some pretty major trends:
Recession Has Hit Eurovision:
- Ukraine has evidently decided to save on songs (and song-writing). So, Gaitana's Be My Guest will not just infest Eurovision but probably also the European Football Championships later this year. I think it'll fare better as a footie theme than as a ESC song but it's a catchy (if dated) dance number.
- Greece has been an enthusiastic ESC participant this past decade (winning in 2005). This year they are sending a girl performing in a shopping centre. I bet they hope they won't win.
- Montenegro has gone one better and is fielding the splendidly absurd Rambo Amadeus with his snarky Euro Neuro funk-rap about the Euro crisis. "Euro neuro don’t be sceptic hermetic, pathetic.." It is a dreadful song, sadly.
Haven't I Seen You Before? Plenty of repeat performers this year. Serbia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Macedonia, Iceland, and Ireland are all sending acts who have been there before either as headliners or as backing vocalists. Some might argue that some of the songs have also been submitted before, but that is an annual concern.
The Year of the Ballad: Maybe the recession is not just to blame for Rambo Amadeus but also for the general air of gloom hanging over this year's Contest. It is a year of gloomy, dreary, never-ending ballads. Listen, I sat through all forty-two songs so you don't have to, and I actually fell asleep several times. Dullness alert: Finland (whose song is actually called "When I Sleep"!), Estonia, Belgium, United Kingdom, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lithuania, Germany, Portugal, and Serbia. You will need caffeine to keep you awake during these heartfelt songs.
What songs are noteworthy this year?
- Oh, Spain is a ballad too but it's pretty good as ballads go. If Pastora can hit the notes on the night and emote well on TV, this could do very well for a Spanish entry. Their strongest entry for years.
- Albania has sent a ballad too. They have surprising good Eurovision form and this is another quality entry. "Suus" is possibly too good and weird to do as well as it should. The juries will vote for this.
- France looks great (hello Jean-Paul Gautier), it is upbeat and if Anggun can sell it on the night, they could be looking at a very good result. One for my iPod mix.
- Earlier this year I dismissed Iceland's chances but the song has grown on me. If the staging is epic and they hit the notes, this is a dark horse. Where on earth would they host the contest, though?
- Another track destined for my iPod comes courtesy of Israel's charming ditty. It reminds me of Latvia's 2000 entry (geek alert!) mixed with early Blur. Total earworm and it stands out.
- And finally, Russia. This will get all the press in Baku and get the novelty song vote. Will "Party for Everyone" win? I don't think so (partly thanks to the voting system) but it will do very, very well.
So, Who Do You Think Will Win? I have three songs that I think will do massively well.
- Azerbaijan is the host country and traditionally the host country does really well the next year (with a few exceptions). Azerbaijan has sent a powerful ballad (*cough, cough* not dissimiliar to an old 1980s hit) and if Sabina can hit the notes, they will get votes. They will get a lot of votes.
- Italy came close last year and they could easily do better this year. Nina Zilli's "Out of Love" is catchy and effortlessly classy in an Amy Winehouse-meets-Duffy mode. It is really, really good. Any other year and this would be the obvious outright winner.
- But then you have Sweden. From the moment you hear that "Inception"-style boom at the start, you know you are in for something pretty special. As my partner-in-Eurovision-crime once said to me, "Imagine Rihanna singing that? It would be number one forever and ever." Loreen's "Euphoria" is the song to beat and everybody knows it. I have not been this emotionally invested in a single song for a very long time.
I'll be live-tweeting throughout the two semis and the finale - hopefully you won't catch me crying into my keyboard over Sweden's result.